The Chelsea at the Cosmopolitan Hotel, Las Vegas, Nevada is the venue where the Featherweight division of the UFC will crown its new number one contender. Former UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie "The Answer" Edgar (18-4-1) will take on Chad "Money" Mendes (17-3-0) at the Main Event of The Ultimate Fighter Season 22 Finale. The winner of this bout will be next in line to take on the winner of current Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo and Interim Champion Conor McGregor at UFC 194. (Assuming there isn't an immediate rematch.)
Five days out from the fight and Edgar is a strong bookies favourite to take the win over Mendes. He comes into this bout on a four fight win streak. His last loss came against Jose Aldo at UFC 156 in February 2013. Since then Edgar defeated Charles Oliveira at UFC 162 by unanimous decision, BJ Penn at the Ultimate Fighter Finale in July 2014 by way of a third round knockout, Cub Swanson in November 2014 in a performance of the night submission and Uriah Faber by unanimous decision in April this year. His cardio and work rate has been phenomenal since his drop down to the UFC 145lb division.
Mendes has had a bumpier ride in his run up to this fight. He comes in after losing to current Interim Champion Conor McGregor in July of this year at UFC 189. Mendes took that fight on two weeks notice after Aldo pulled out with a bruised rib. A combination of taking that fight on short notice along with McGregor utilising his striking to target Chad's body meant that he did not have the cardio to keep up with Conor, who had spent months in the Las Vegas desert heat preparing for the speed and power of Jose Aldo.
Mendes knocked out Ricardo Lamas in a one round beat down back in April this year at UFC Fairfax. Prior to that fight he lost a unanimous decision to Jose Aldo at UFC 179 in October last year. Chad took the champion the full five rounds and notably left Aldo's face in an awful shape in what was one of the best fights of 2014. That fight was a good demonstration of how much Chad had matured and grown as a fighter since the pairs previous meeting at UFC Rio in January 2012. Aldo caught Mendes with a first round flying knee knocking the American out. The fight may not have ended in that fashion had Aldo not blatantly grabbed the fence in order to stop Mendes from taking him down but it was clear from the early exchanges that Chad's striking was nowhere near on par with the Aldo's and that he was firmly out of his depth.
In the time between their first and second meeting Chad won five fights with four of them by knockout / TKO. He went from being afighter with a strong wrestling background to a fully fledged mixed martial artist with vicious knockout power. Although he didn't knock him out, Aldo's face after the UFC 179 fight was proof that he had embraced the striking side of the game.
Despite the massive improvements in his game, Aldo still managed to edge Mendes in that fight. It was a tough loss for "Money" but the fight had shown how good he had gotten in a little over two and a half years.
It is very hard to separate both of these fighters. Both men have incredibly strong backgrounds in grappling and wrestling. Mendes was able to take Conor McGregor down at will at UFC 189 but was let down in the end by his cardio. Edgar on the other hand is a perfect example of a pressure fighter who can go full on well into the championship rounds. His last three fights have all been five round fights in which he dominated from start to finish. His submission of Cub Swanson last November in the dying seconds of the fifth round is a good example of how strong his cardio and fight IQ is. If the fight manages to go the distance it would be hard not to go with the bookmakers on this one and to go with Edgar, but as has been mentioned here and elsewhere, Mendes has lost two out of his last three fights, his pride has been bruised, particularly in the manner in which he lost to McGregor. He showed at UFC 179 that he has caught up to the level of the champ and that he learns from his losses. This coupled with his desire to get back to winning ways and another shot at the belt, be it with Conor or Aldo could mean we see a whole new Mendes enter the Octagon on Friday evening.
Edgar has spoken about his desire to be the UFC's first three weight division champion. He has only had one shot at Aldo, which was his first ever fight at Featherweight. He came into that fight having lost his Lightweight title and the subsequent rematch to Benson Henderson in a controversial split decision. That could have been described as the lowest point in Edgar's career. Now he comes into this fight full of motivation and confidence having beaten the who's who at Featherweight and all in impressive fashion.
There are so many variables, on paper I would go with Edgar to take the win but being Mixed Martial Arts, it is almost impossible to say. It is safe to say we are in for a war at the Cosmo this Friday night.